JPMorgan Chase COO Daniel Pinto on Friday offered his take on the economy and the direction of U.S. interest rates.
Pinto described the economy – both globally and in the U.S. — as "at least for now doing fine," adding "there is growth" in Europe, America and other parts of the world. He noted the "impact of interest rates always have a lag," something he said he thought would happen "for sure."
"There are some indications where you see that there are some signs of slowdown," Pinto said about the U.S. at the AllianceBernstein Strategic Decisions Conference.
"You saw today the unemployment rate going up and some numbers in the employment numbers — not necessarily the payroll numbers today but others — they are showing some degree of a slowdown."
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier Friday that the unemployment rate was 3.7% in May, up 3.4% from April.
"I think that my view is that it’s likely the Fed will get to run toward 5.5%, and they will pause," Pinto said at the conference. "And then time will tell."
The Federal Reserve will "give the time to see if the lag effect is really going to curb inflation, and if it doesn’t, probably we will have another small set of hikes," according to Pinto. His estimate for what that could look like was 50 basis points "or something like that."
The Fed has its benchmark rate set to 5% to 5.25%, a range set at the last Federal Open Markets Committee meeting in May. In under two weeks the FOMC is next expected to gather for two days.
"It’s most likely we will have some recession at some point, how deep or not is going to be difficult to say," Pinto added. "Obviously, they have to go one more round, there probably will be a deeper recession, so we will see."
"So it looks OK for now," Pinto said. "I think there are plenty of issues going forward. So, that’s why I think there will be a recession at some point, but I don’t see, for the moment, a crisis."
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He said he saw it as "just a slowdown in the economic cycle to deal with inflation, and that’s probably it."
Inflation saw month-over-month and year-over-year increases in April, according to the latest consumer price index data put out in May by the Labor Department. It went up 0.4% from March to April and 4.9% from a year ago, FOX Business previously reported.
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the likelihood of the Fed keeping the rate where it is at nearly 72% as of Friday evening.