Traders bet big on Fed rate cut as December odds soar above 80% on prediction markets
The Fed’s next opportunity to adjust interest rates is at its Dec. 9-10 policy meeting
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Prediction markets are heavily signaling a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December, with probabilities hovering above 80% on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Traders on both platforms see only a slim chance of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady and virtually no expectation of a larger move.
On Polymarket, the trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little over $171 million.
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A Polymarket wager tracking the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision. (Polymarket)
Meanwhile, on Kalshi, more than $15.8 million worth of bets have been placed on the Fed decision market.
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Kalshi and Polymarket let users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market odds.
A Kalshi wager tracking the Federal Reserve’s December interest rate decision. (Kalshi)
The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled opportunity to adjust interest rates is at its Dec. 9-10 policy meeting, when its rate-setting committee meets to decide whether to raise, cut or hold.
The meeting unfolds amid the Trump administration’s efforts to address the affordability crisis, defined by rising housing costs, elevated prices for necessities and increasing financial strain on families.
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Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, was tapped by Trump to lead the nation's central bank. (Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty Images / Getty Images)
President Donald Trump has, in turn, placed blame on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for not cutting rates more aggressively. Powell's chairmanship ends in May 2026.
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Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrapped interviews for Powell’s potential replacement on Tuesday, and Trump may announce a new Fed chair by Christmas.